Sri Lankan War Nears End, but Peace Remains Distant

February 18, 2009

TRINCOMALEE, Sri Lanka - Just north of here, after a string of recent victories, the Sri Lankan military is closing in on separatist rebels in what it calls the climactic battles of the country's long-running civil war. But in this heavily militarized port city, there are no signs of jubilation.

The government similarly declared victory here in Eastern Province 18 months ago. Though there are clear hints of reconstruction, the fear and lack of development apparent in the area reveal just how far the government still has to go to win the peace, even if its forces ultimately prevail on the battlefield.

"What the victor does after the battle will determine whether you win or not," said Rohan Samarajiva, a former government regulator who is now a business consultant. "It's appalling to see how little things have improved in the north and the east."

The government has yet to address the cultural and political grievances that fueled the insurgency among the ethnic Tamil minority, analysts say. But more than that, the northern and eastern regions that have been the scene of most of the conflict are several decades behind the southern areas that are home to the Sinhalese majority in terms of wealth and development.

Without addressing the gap, analysts say, there is little hope of securing a peaceful and prosperous future for Sri Lanka's 21 million people. "They lost their investor class, they lost their physical assets, their infrastructure," said Sirimal Abeyratne, professor of economics at the University of Colombo. "People lost their skills."

The country's economy has been remarkably resilient in recent years despite the conflict. But today any effort at reconstruction is likely to be hampered by the global economic crisis, even if the government is fully committed to it - and that remains an open question.

Money today is literally in short supply in Sri Lanka. Tourist arrivals were down 32 percent in January. The garment industry is shedding jobs, and the prices of two major exports, tea and rubber, are plummeting. The central bank's foreign reserves are down to an estimated $1.5 billion, enough to pay for about six weeks of imports.

Security here in Trincomalee has improved, according to S. Thevarajah, an employee of the local government health service, but he does not plan to tell his son, who has lived in Britain for the last 17 years, to come back. "There are too many problems here," Mr. Thevarajah said. "And he's my only son."

The capital, Colombo, is buzzing about whether President Mahinda Rajapaksa will seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund or the Indian government.

Opinion about the country's future seems sharply divided between north and south.

The full  NYT story you can read at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/18/world/asia/18lanka.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=Sri%20Lanka&st=cse

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/world/asia/13lanka.html?scp=3&sq=Sri%20Lanka&st=cse